Archive for the ‘Market Musings’ Category

Monday, May 2nd, 2011 by ARTS Team No Comments »

The S&P 500 gained 1.9% as most companies continue to top earnings forcasts and first quarter GDP grew at a slightly faster pace than was expected. As stocks gained, the dollar fell, gold hit a new record high and oil prices rose to a new multiyear high.

12 Month Stock Market Performance

Commodity prices rallied, with silver spiking 3.8%, crude advancing 1.2% and gold gaining 3.7% while the dollar index fell 1.2%. Gold is up 10% on the year, oil is up 24% and silver has increased in value by 55%. Meanwhile, the US greenback has fallen 7.7%.

The week was extremely earnings heavy, with nearly 150 S&P 500 companies releasing their quarterly results.

Research In Motion
(RIMM) took a pounding as the maker of BlackBerry devices lowered its profit forecast.

3M
(MMM) hit an all-time high following its upside report and forecast.

Amazon.com
(AMZN) rallied to a new record following its earnings beat.

Exxon Mobil
(XOM) garnered attention after posting a $11 bln quarterly profit, which was slightly ahead of estimates.

About 300 S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter earnings with 74% posting an upside surprise. Earnings are now expected to grow 16% this quarter, an increase from the 11.5% estimate at the beginning of the quarter.

The FOMC left the benchmark unchanged at between 0.00% and 0.25%, as expected. The Federal Reserve trimmed its 2011 growth forecast range by about 40 basis points. On a positive note, the Fed also decreased its unemployment expectations, now forecasting a range of between 8.4% and 8.7%.

In economic news, first quarter GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8%, slightly ahead of the Briefing.com consensus of 1.7%. An increase in imports, a slowdown in personal spending growth and a decrease in federal government spending resulted in the deceleration of GDP growth relative to prior quarters.

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Market Update

Sunday, April 10th, 2011 by ARTS Team No Comments »

The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, in relatively quiet trading week. The modest decline follows a positive 4.2% gain in the previous two weeks.

Seven of the ten sectors dropped, with industrials shedding 1.4%. Consumer staples posted the largest gain, up 1.1%.

12 Month Stock market Performance

Commodity prices rallied, with silver peaking at 8.5%, crude advanced 4.8% and gold increasing 3.3%. The dollar index fell 1.3%, while hitting a fresh 52-week low against the euro.

NSM spiked 68% and was the top performer for the week. Retailers also were among the week’s best performing stocks on upside reports.

In corporate news, Texas Instruments (TXN) is going to buy National Semiconductor (NSM) for $6.5 bln, an 80% premium.

On the negative, oil sensitive stocks took a hit, such as Southwest Airlines(LUV), whose value decreased 7.8%.

In overseas news, the ECB raised its benchmark lending rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, as expected. Portugal requested aid from EU officials.

Back in the U.S., the looming threat of a government shutdown had a limited impact on stock trading.

The coming week marks the unofficial start to first quarter earnings season with Alcoa (AA) reporting on Monday after the close.

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Market Update

Monday, March 14th, 2011 by ARTS Team No Comments »

The S&P 500 ended the week lower as declines in heavyweight energy and tech stocks dragged. Stocks pared some of the week’s losses Friday even as overseas markets declined after Japan was hit by the fifth largest earthquake on record. Headline risk continues to drive volatility in the markets, especially in the commodity sector.

Tech companies as a whole fell, with notable weakness in semiconductors (-5.5%) and equipment makers (-5.5%). Heavyweights Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) fell 2.2% and 3.8%, respectively.

12 Month Stock Market Performance

Company specific news acted as the main drivers of the top performing stocks this week. Starbucks (SBUX 10.4%) surged after the company announced a strategic relationship with Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR 41.0%).

Six of the ten sectors traded lower. Energy (-3.5%), materials and technology posted the biggest declines. Defense sectors outperformed, with telecom boosted by some M&A speculation.

Energy and material stocks dropped as oil and other commodities took a hard hit. Crude oil prices dropped 3.6% and the CRB Index lost 3.1%.

In M&A news, Western Digital (WDC 14.6%) rallied on news that it will purchase Hitachi’s (HIT -3.5%) storage business. The prospect of less competition also lifted up rival Seagate (STX 8.9%). Sprint Nextel (S 15.2%) spiked on reports that it is in talks regarding a potential merger with T-Mobile USA, which is owned by Deutsche Telecom.

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Market Update

Monday, March 7th, 2011 by ARTS Team No Comments »

The S&P 500 ended the week flat after a sharp fall Tuesday was offset by a sharp rise Thursday. Oil prices hit two year highs on the turmoil in Libya and the Middle East that continues to fester, while gold once again hit a record highs.

Health care was the top gainer for the week, up 2.4%, while financials languished with a loss of 1.6%, while most sectors remained relatively unchanged.

12 Month Stock Market Performance

In economic news, the employment situation continues to improve, albeit slowly. Private employers added 222,000 jobs in February, exceeding expectations and offsetting a declining public payroll, with overall payrolls increasing 190,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly moved down to 8.9% from 9.0%.

In other economic news, the ISM Service index rose to 59.7, the highest level since 2005. The ISM manufacturing Index hit a multi-year high of 61.4, exceeding the briefing.com consensus of 60.5.

In corporate news, heavyweight Apple (AAPL) rose 3.0% as the company and CEO, Steve Jobs introduced its new iPad 2.

Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered his semi-annual policy report to lawmakers. He was optimistic about the economic outlook but made no newsworthy revelations.

Meanwhile, continued unrest in the Middle East continues to stir up the commodity market. Oil prices rallied 7.3% hitting a multi-year high of $105.17 per barrel. Gold increased 1.6% to an all-time nominal high of $1441 per ounce.

The Treasury market saw volatility as did the dollar, but ended the week even. The dollar saw some weakening trends after ECB President Trichet said that the ECB may raise interest rates as soon as next month to slow inflation.

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Market Briefing

Monday, January 24th, 2011 by ARTS Team No Comments »

Momentum indicators continued to deteriorate last week, raising the probability that the markets might be entering a topping process.  Although the DJIA advanced to a new high, the Russell 2000 was substantial lower for the week.  Strength in the market should be seen as an opportunity to raise some cash.

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Market Update From The ARTS Team

Monday, January 24th, 2011 by ARTS Team No Comments »

Many of the major indices declined during the holiday-shortened week.  The S&P 500 declined 0.8% as earnings came in with mixed results as concerns increased that China will raise interest rates.

Materials (-3.2%) led to the downside. The sector’s decline began after China reported robust GDP growth. That increased fears that China will need to raise interest rates again to prevent its economy from overheating, forcing commodity prices down.

YTD Stock Market Performance

The 10 sectors showed mixed results, with three settling lower, four showing modest gains of 0.2% or less, and three showing stronger gains. Utilities led to the upside, rising 1.1%.

The bulk of major financial firms reported fourth quarter earning results this week, disappointing several investors. Bank of America (BAC, ) fell -6.6% after reporting a loss of $0.04 per share, excluding nonrecurring items, falling short of the estimate of $0.06. Citigroup (C, -4.7%) posted a modest profit but missed estimates. Goldman Sachs (GS, -5.0%), Wells Fargo (WFC, -0.7%) and Morgan Stanley (MS, +3.6%) however, all beat analysts expectations.

Outside of financial fields, General Electric (GE, +4.9%) achieved better-than-expected earnings and predicted increasing profits in the coming years. Meanwhile, IBM (IBM, +3.7%) beat expectations as revenue increased 6.6% y/y. Those earnings helped the Dow (+0.7%) outperform this week.

Electronics industry leader, Apple (AAPL, -6.2%) reported another strong quarter as revenue spiked 70.5% y/y, easily surpassing estimates, despite the recent announcement of CEO Steve Jobs indefinite, medical leave of absence

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Market Musings From The ARTS Team

Sunday, October 10th, 2010 by ARTS Team No Comments »

U.S. stocks surged last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 11,000 for the first time in five months.

The Dow finished the trading session at 57.90 points or up 0.5 percent on expectations the Federal Reserve will buy more debt to spur the economy after a weak jobs report.

YTD Stock Market Performance

This last time the Dow was over 11,000 was May 3rd, 2010. The benchmark index reached its highest point of the year on April 26 when it hit 11,205. The first time the Dow touched 11,000 was May 1999.

The S&P closed 1.7 percent higher for the week closing at 1,165.15. The S&P is also at its highest level since May.

The Nasdaq rose 0.8 percent on Friday to 2,401.91. The Nasdaq was up 1.3 percent for the week.

The US dollar fell against the euro and the yen while gold prices continued to rise ending the Friday session at $1,345 an ounce.

The US benchmark 10-year bond was unchanged rising slightly to yield 2.39 percent.

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Market Musings From The ARTS Team

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010 by ARTS Team No Comments »

US stocks modestly for the week ending October 1st ending a previous month surge that was the best performing September since the 1930s and the best month since April 2009.

The S&P 500 was basically flat on Friday trading rising 0.44 percent to close at 1,146.24. The S&P is up 2.79 percent year-to-date.

YTD Stock Market Performance

The S&P has been edging closer to technical resistance levels which could mean a greater surge as it finds a new trading range. The index has been trading between a 1,140 and 1,150 level but has fallen from the top-end of that range in the last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 41.63 points, or 0.39 percent, to 10,829.68. The Dow closed lower for the week dropping 0.28 percent after four consecutive weeks of gains. The Dow is up 3.85 percent year-to-date.

The Russell 2000 Index of small companies increased 0.57 percent.

The Nasdaq is holding on to a 4.48 percent gain for the year. It rose 2.13 percent on Friday to close at 2,370.75.

On the NYSE there were 2,080 (66%) advancers for every 940 (30%) decliners. Four percent of stocks remained unchanged.

Gold prices surpassed a previous high, reaching more than $1,317 an ounce. As gold surged, the U.S. dollar weakened.

The US benchmark 10-year bond was unchanged rising a slight 0.01 percent to yield 2.53 percent.

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Market Musings From the ARTS Team

Monday, September 27th, 2010 by ARTS Team No Comments »

The week ahead:

MONDAY: Chicago Fed national activity index; Texas manufacturing outlook survey, 2-year note auction, Schapiro, Breeden, Pitt on future of SEC; BlackBerry’s Devcon 2010, FedEx shareholder meeting

TUESDAY: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index; Richmond Fed survey; consumer confidence index; 5-year note auction; Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart speaks; Barnes & Noble shareholder meeting; HP analyst meeting

WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; oil inventories; Minneapolis Fed Pres Kockerlakota speaks; Philadelphia Fed Pres Plosser speaks; Boston Fed Pres Rosengren speaks; 7-year note auction

THURSDAY: Reading on GDP; Weekly jobless claims; Corporate profits; Chicago PMI; Hearing on J&J recalls

FRIDAY: Personal spending; NY Fed Pres Dudley speaks; Consumer sentiment; ISM manufacturing index; Construction spending; Monthly auto sales; BP’s Hayward steps down

Sept. 26, 2010 – Market Recap

US stocks rose for the week ending Septmeber 24th, the fourth consecutive week of gains on the benchmark indexes, as investor confidence in the economy was buoyed by improving demand for capital goods and technology products.

YTD Stock Market Performance

The S&P 500 rose 2.1 percent this week to 1,148.67. The S&P is up 9.5 percent in September and closed above the 1130 resistance level twice in the past week – a signal to some traders that the market is ready to trade in a higher range.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 252.41 points, or 2.4 percent, to 10,860.26. The Dow is now up 8.33 percent for the month – the largest gain in September trading in over 70 years. September is historically the worst month for stocks.

The Russell 2000 Index of small companies increased 3 percent.

The Nasdaq is poised for its best September since 1998 – holding on to a 12.6 percent gain for the month. It rose 2.3 percent on Friday to close at 2,381.22.

Gold futures surpassed a previous high, reaching more than $1,300 an ounce. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell, marking a 2.61 percent yield at the end of the Friday trading session. Fed Funds rate remained unchanged – as expected. As gold surged, the U.S. dollar weakened 2.6 percent for the week.

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Market Musings From The ARTS Team

Monday, September 13th, 2010 by ARTS Team No Comments »

US stocks close slightly higher on Friday boosted by news that wholesale inventories rose 1.3 percent in July, showing confidence in retail sales and consumer spending. A 0.5 percent rise was forecast.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 47 points Friday in very light trading following the Rosh Hashanah holiday. It was the seventh day of gains out of the past eight sessions at the New York Stock Exchange and the S&P.

YTD Stock Market Performance

The Dow rose 47.53, or 0.5 percent, to close at 10,462.77.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 5.37, or 0.5 percent, to 1,109.55, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 6.28, or 0.3 percent, to 2,242.48.

Energy stocks rose after a 3 percent rise in oil prices. The energy sector gained after news an Enbridge pipeline that delivers oil to Midwest refineries was shut down. Oil rose $2.20 to $76.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bond prices headed lower on Friday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.80 percent from 2.76 percent on Thursday.

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